Sensitivity of ecosystem-protected permafrost under changing boreal forest structures

Abstract Boreal forests efficiently insulate underlying permafrost. The magnitude of this insulation effect is dependent on forest density and composition. A change therein modifies the energy water fluxes within below canopy. direct influence climatic indirect through a in permafrost dynamics lead to extensive ecosystem shifts such as composition or density, which will, turn, affect persistence. We derive future scenarios plant functional type by analyzing projections provided dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) under warming scenarios. apply detailed permafrost-multilayer canopy study spatial impact-variability simulated densities compositions for sites throughout eastern Siberia. Our results show that has clear ground surface temperatures (GST) maximum active layer thickness (ALT) at all sites, but direction depends local climate conditions. At two higher leads significant decrease GSTs snow-free period, while leading an increase warmest site. Complete loss deepening ALT up 0.33 m over 8 ? C independently Forest can induce both, wetting four times drying 50%, depending precipitation soil type. Deciduous-dominated canopies reveal lower compared evergreen stands, will play important factor spreading taxa persistence highlights changing significantly modify thermal hydrological state induced changes likely key functions carbon pools related feedback mechanisms swamping, droughts, fires, loss.